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each Saturday by 10:00am eastern time. In the financial markets... U.S. stocks moved higher for a second consecutive week as traders and investors overcame concerns about consumer sentiment and inflation. On Friday, stocks moved sharply lower in early trade in response to weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment data and a spike in crude oil prices. However, investors turned their attention to broader signs, including the week's generally decent earnings reports that suggested the government efforts to steady the economy seem to be working. That focus helped stocks rebound later in the day, although technology stocks still remained under pressure due to a disappointing forecast from software leader Microsoft. For the week, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3 percent, while the broad-based S&P 500 Index added 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, the technology-laden Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.8 percent despite the index's loss on Friday. On the economic front, the University of Michigan reported on Friday that its consumer sentiment index fell to a reading of 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March, reflecting consumers' concern about rising energy and food prices. And although the consumer sentiment index came in with its lowest reading since the early 1980s, corporate earnings reports seemed to convince investors that things are not as bad as they first thought. Other key economic data released earlier in the week painted a mixed picture for the economy. On Tuesday, the markets received data showing that existing home sales fell two percent in March, which was slightly stronger than the 2.2 percent decline forecast by economists. But on Thursday, data showed that new home sales fell by 8.5 percent in March, which was much weaker than the 1.7 percent decline forecast by economists. Separately on Thursday, a report showed that durable goods orders fell 0.3 percent in March, which was weaker than the unchanged reading forecast by economists. On the positive side on Thursday, jobless claims for the week ended April 19 fell by 33,000 to a level of 342,000. That was well below economists' expectations calling for claims to come in at 375,000. The real concern this week came from another sharp rise in crude oil prices. Oil futures jumped on a series of troubling events overseas, including word that a ship under contract with the U.S. Navy fired flares and warning shots at two small boats of unknown origin in the Persian Gulf. In addition, oil was already moving higher early on Friday morning following an attack on a pipeline in Nigeria and a looming refinery strike in Scotland. All the negative news caused crude oil futures to climb as high as $119.50 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday before closing the week at $118.52 per barrel. Due to the gain in stock prices and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the bond market fell again this week. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield closed the week at 3.87 percent, up from 3.74 percent a week earlier. As mentioned earlier, the market managed to move higher despite the rise in crude oil and mixed economic data due to generally decent corporate earnings reports. For example, American Express shares rose after the company reported that its first quarter earnings fell six percent as more U.S. cardholders failed to make their payments. The credit card lender's total provisions for credit losses jumped 48 percent from a year earlier to $1.27 billion. However, the company said cardholders are continuing to spend and that strength overseas has helped offset the troubles in the United States. In addition, Goodyear Tire & Rubber shares rose after the company posted a first quarter profit amid increased revenue. The tire maker, which reported a loss for the same period a year earlier, said it focused on higher-priced tires and international markets. On the negative side, software giant Microsoft closed out the week lower after reporting after the close on Thursday that worldwide sales next year would offset weakness in the U.S. economy. The Week Ahead The equity market should start out the week quietly as traders await the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate decision, which will come on Wednesday afternoon. Over the past few months, traders and economists have been able to anticipate rate cuts, but this meeting is different. This is the first meeting in many months in which a cut is not virtually guaranteed. Expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut were eliminated on April 18 when stocks staged a huge rally after strong earnings from Google and Caterpillar pointed to resilience in the face of a slowdown. While the majority of bets are for a 25 basis point cut next week, there is still a one-in-four chance of no rate cut, based on federal funds futures. Not since August 2007 has there been any question whether or not the Fed would cut rates. The Fed will announce its rate decision on Wednesday at 2:15pm eastern time. Earlier that day, the Commerce Department releases its first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data. Economists forecast that GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter, suggesting that the economy is not into recession territory just yet. Simply put, it may become a make-or-break week with interest rates, oil prices, corporate earnings, economic data, the U.S. dollar and technical factors all coming into play. The week may actually start prior to Monday's trading. Microsoft set a Saturday deadline for its proposed takeover of Yahoo. If the two sides cannot reach a deal by the Saturday deadline, Microsoft said it would consider its options of going hostile or withdrawing its offer. After the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday, the market should experience some lackluster trade as traders await April's employment report, which is due for release on Friday morning. After a string of positive earnings reports, the April employment report may bring some negativity to the markets. Economists are expecting non-farm payrolls to decline by 80,000 in April, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.2 percent from 5.1 percent in March. In addition to the employment report, there are a number of other key economic reports due for release next week. On Tuesday, the markets will receive the latest consumer confidence data, while on Wednesday, the markets will receive the employment cost index (ECI) data for the first quarter. Thursday will be a busy day for data as traders and investors will have to absorb the personal income and spending data, as well as the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing survey, weekly jobless claims for the week ended April 26 and March's construction spending report. On Friday, in addition to the employment data, the markets will receive the factory orders report for the month of March. Oil will be a concern again next week as crude continues to hover at record price levels. Continuing supply concerns brought about by strike developments in Scotland and Nigeria have exaggerated the trend. However, it should be pointed out that if the strikes end quickly or the U.S. dollar begins to rebound, there could be a correction in crude oil prices. A slew of major oil companies report their earnings next week. Dow components Exxon Mobil and Chevron announce results Thursday and Friday, respectively. Marathon Oil reports Thursday, while BP and Royal Dutch Shell will release their results on Tuesday. Outside of the oil companies, credit card companies Visa and MasterCard report earnings on Monday and Tuesday respectively, which could help show the financial condition of the consumer. Other insights about the consumer could be ascertained from reports from Colgate-Palmolive, Kraft Foods and Procter & Gamble on Wednesday. Foreign revenues have been the savior of this quarter's earnings results. With the dollar at a record low against the euro, U.S. companies have been able to sell more to overseas customers and have enjoyed a positive currency translation when they put those revenues on their balance sheets. Among the companies set to report next week, overseas sales will be key for major multi-nationals such as Avon Products and Clorox (Procter & Gamble, which was mentioned earlier, will also benefit from its overseas business). Other key earnings reports next week come from Countrywide Financial, Verizon, General Motors and Sun Microsystems. Another factor next week will come from rebate checks from the U.S. government, part of the economic stimulus package passed in February. The rebates will start to show up in bank accounts next week and many economists believe the rebates will help consumers maintain their confidence. However, it remains to be seen if the checks will have a large effect on the economy. Based on all of these factors, the equity market's intermediate performance may be forged by the outcome of next week's economic data, earnings reports and the Fed's interest rate decision. In
politics... Hillary Clinton's victory in the Pennsylvania primary revived her campaign and may have increased the possibility that she'll win the Democratic nomination for president. But at least one pollster said Friday that the results of the Keystone State's contest didn't make any difference. "So far," according to a poll released Friday by Rasmussen Reports, "there is absolutely no indication that Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania has changed the overall dynamic of the race." Rasmussen Reports found that, in the race for the Democratic nomination, Clinton garners 42 percent of the vote vs. rival Barack Obama's 49 percent. The results are based on a four-day rolling average and include two nights of polling after Pennsylvania's primary was held. Clinton spent Friday campaigning in North Carolina and Indiana, the sites of the next primaries, taking place May 6. She's trailing Obama in polls in North Carolina, but the race remains competitive in Indiana. Obama is also in Indiana, hosting a town hall meeting in Kokomo. He stayed in the state to play some pickup basketball Friday night. Obama narrowly beats Clinton in Indiana poll Separately, a new poll by the Indianapolis Star and WTHR showed that Obama has a slight edge over Clinton in the Hoosier State. Helped by strong backing from African-American voters, the Illinois senator is beating the New York senator 41 percent to 38 percent in the poll. But the race is considered a dead heat since the poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percent. At the same time, 21 percent of respondents said that they're undecided on who to vote for, adding another element of uncertainty to the already tight matchup. Courtesy of CBS Marketwatch And Finally... We all know the patron saints, but I bet most of you never knew about these patrons: 1) Apollonia - Patron Saint of toothaches 2) Fiacre - Patron Saint of venereal disease and taxi drivers 3) Gengulf - Patron Saint of unhappy marriages 4) Vitus - Patron Saint of comedians and mental illness 5) Matthew - Patron Saint of accountants 6) Bernardino of Siena - Patron Saint of advertising executives 7) Luke - Patron Saint of butchers 8) Marin de Porres - Patron Saint of hairdressers 9) Joseph of Arimathea - Patron Saint of grave diggers and funeral directors 10) Bernard of Clairvaux - Patron Saint of beekeepers 11) Sebastian - Patron Saint of neighborhood watch
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